Sunday, May 22, 2011

The overblown myth of green energy security

Turmoil across the Middle East and Northern Africa has refocused attention on the impact that political tensions or interference can have on the price and availability of energy imports. Against consumer fears of gas-price hikes, energy security ranks high on many Western governments' policy agendas.

Of course, this is hardly a new phenomenon. Europe started trying to build up its energy reserves back in the 1960's . Likewise, every American president since Richard Nixon in the early 1970's has tried, and failed, to reduce dependence on foreign oil.

Anew trend, though, is that policies that just afew years ago were being touted to fight climate change are being presented as a necessary way to increase energy security. Against the backdrop of the financial crisis, and as public support for climate-change policies scrapes new lows in many developed countries, we hear less from leaders about the threat of global warming , and more about the supposed economic benefits of climate policies.

This shift is hardly surprising, given the increasing number of analyses that demonstrate that current – unilateral – climate policies will have virtually no impact on the rise in global temperature.

The European Union offers a classic illustration of this point. Its "20-20-20 " climate plan – by far the most comprehensive climate-change policy in effect anywhere – aims to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions by 20% from 1990 levels by 2020, ensure that renewable energy delivers 20% of energy consumption, and cut primary energy use by 20%.

An analysis of the costs and benefits of the policy in 2010 by climate economist Richard Tol showed that the annual price tag would be around €210 billion. Running the policy through the RICE climate-economic model reveals that by the end of this century, it will reduce temperature rises by just 0.05°C.

Undaunted by the policy's utterly feeble impact on global warming, politicians have declared that the policy will at least enhance the EU's energy security. So the Copenhagen Consensus Centre asked Professor Christoph Böhringer and Andreas Keller of the University of Oldenburg to test this claim.

Of course, the notion of energy security is fuzzy. In their research paper, "Energy Security: An Impact Assessment of the EU Climate and Energy Package," Böhringer and Keller note that the EU has never set itself a clear metric for energy security.

Source: http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com

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