Friday, August 26, 2011

Natural gas boom is the real deal

"Now we have runs on the scoreboard," says John Hanger, former head of Pennsylvania's Department of Environmental Protection, regarding the natural gas opportunity. Hanger was responding to the updated estimate for natural gas reserves by the United States Geological Survey, which was revised upwards from 2 trillion cubic feet in 2002 to 84TCF this year. Hanger characterizes the current estimate as conservative, and the previous estimate as extremely conservative. "We've already produced 2 trillion TCF from the Marcellus [Shale]. So we've already exceeded [the estimate] from 2002," Hanger explains. "And Pennsylvania alone, over the past 12 months, has produced close to 1 trillionTCF and that was just 1600 wells," Hanger adds for emphasis. Many more wells are coming Hanger says and that is only going to increase production.

All of these numbers are evidence of the legitimacy of the natural gas boom that's been predicted for years. But you wouldn't know it from the discussion of the USGS estimate. Indeed, depending on which newspaper you read or which news report who watched on the matter, you might think the sky was falling in for the oil&gas industry instead of the sky's the limit.

As The Hill reports , the new estimate is either a revision upwards (from the last estimate) or an 80 percent revision downwards from the Energy Department's Energy Information Administration (EIA) last projection. In fact, how you look at the new estimate depends very much on whether you favor natural gas drilling or not. "Gas from shale formations is commonly tapped with hydraulic fracturing — or “fracking” — a method that advocates tout as a way to unlock vast supplies, boosting energy security and the economy in the process.

"But environmentalists fear the U.S. shale-gas boom could lead to widespread groundwater pollution by expanding use of fracking, which involves high-pressure injections of water, chemicals and sand into gas-bearing rock formations."

So you either love the new "lower" estimate because it confirms that there isn't even that much gas to be had so why poison the earth going after it. Or you love the new "higher" estiamte because it confirms your hopes for a future of cleaner burning fuel (natural gas) and less dependance on Middle Eastern oil and coal, both of which pose environmental and national security challenges.

Hanger says the folks on the far left trying to make out like the USGS estimate is a revision downwards are like those on the extreme right who argue that climate science is all a conspiracy. Both sides are being unrealistic in their thinking and neither should have any impact on public policy decisions.

Source: www.nypost.com

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