The Iran nuclear accord agreed in Geneva this weekend will rely heavily on the International Atomic Energy Agency to make it stick, requiring more inspectors to carry out many more visits.
Experts from the EU, who brokered the Geneva deal, will hold talks this week with IAEA officials about how to put the agreement into practice.
The agreement gives Iran some sanctions relief in return for strict curbs on the country's nuclear programme. The IAEA, which did not take direct part in the negotiations, is now likely to be caught between Iran and the west if there are disputes over how the six-month interim deal is being implemented.
Officials at the IAEA's headquarters in Vienna would not comment on the implications for the agency before this week's talks and consultations within its governing board, but it is clear that it will have to significantly expand its operations in Iran.
At the moment there is no permanent IAEA office in Iran. Instead a team of about 20 inspectors take turns to be in the country every two weeks. There are at least two inspectors there at any one time and they stay in accommodation provided by the Iranian government about one hour's drive from the main uranium enrichment plant at Natanz.
There are cameras rigged up over the ranks of centrifuges at Natanz, and a newer, underground, plant at Fordow. The inspectors visit every one or two weeks to review the video recordings to ensure Iranian scientists have not made any unannounced changes that might suggest that some of the uranium is being diverted to make weapons.
Under the Geneva agreement inspectors would have to make daily visits to Natanz and Fordow, and inspect uranium mines and other sites they have not visited before, such as centrifuge-making plants.
The inspectors will be expected to verify that Iran has stopped work on the Arak heavy water reactor and is converting its stockpile of 20% enriched uranium.
Robert Kelley, a former IAEA inspector, said some elements of the plan, such as the daily visits to the enrichment plants, went beyond what was needed to ensure Iran was unable to divert uranium to a covert weapons programme.
"That looks like an unhelpful addition by the politicians," Kelley said. "Can you imagine a more boring job than having to go every day to take the memory stick out of those cameras?" The IAEA director general, Yukiya Amano, said this month that his agency could handle the extra workload. "We can mobilise the existing staff.
We have very capable inspectors with good knowledge of the nuclear fuel cycle," he told Reuters. However, it is not clear whether the implementation of the Geneva interim plan will require the IAEA to set up an permanent office in Iran, or whether Tehran would allow that to happen.
Tariq Rauf, former head of verification and security policy co-ordination at the IAEA, said the way the Geneva agreement was drafted could also lead to pressure on the agency to constantly expand its monitoring.
"There is room here for mischief if opponents can throw a spanner in the works with new accusations about different sites and demanding inspectors visit them, which Iran might resist.
It is a vulnerability of the agreement," Rauf said. only oblique reference is a line in the preamble saying a joint commission made up – of Iran and the six national signatories, known as the P5+1 – "will work with the IAEA to facilitate resolution of past and present issues of concern".
Andreas Persbo, head of Vertic, an independent group that develops means to verify international agreements, said the line was ambiguous.
"It's not clear if the information [about past weaponisation work] will be shared with the IAEA, who might then firewall that information within a small team, or whether the P5+1 and Iran would discuss the issue among themselves and keep the IAEA in the dark."
US officials have insisted that, despite the lack of references to the issue in the text of the agreement, Iran would come clean about any prior weapons work as part of a comprehensive agreement that is due to be completed in the next six months.
theguardian.com
Experts from the EU, who brokered the Geneva deal, will hold talks this week with IAEA officials about how to put the agreement into practice.
The agreement gives Iran some sanctions relief in return for strict curbs on the country's nuclear programme. The IAEA, which did not take direct part in the negotiations, is now likely to be caught between Iran and the west if there are disputes over how the six-month interim deal is being implemented.
Officials at the IAEA's headquarters in Vienna would not comment on the implications for the agency before this week's talks and consultations within its governing board, but it is clear that it will have to significantly expand its operations in Iran.
At the moment there is no permanent IAEA office in Iran. Instead a team of about 20 inspectors take turns to be in the country every two weeks. There are at least two inspectors there at any one time and they stay in accommodation provided by the Iranian government about one hour's drive from the main uranium enrichment plant at Natanz.
There are cameras rigged up over the ranks of centrifuges at Natanz, and a newer, underground, plant at Fordow. The inspectors visit every one or two weeks to review the video recordings to ensure Iranian scientists have not made any unannounced changes that might suggest that some of the uranium is being diverted to make weapons.
Under the Geneva agreement inspectors would have to make daily visits to Natanz and Fordow, and inspect uranium mines and other sites they have not visited before, such as centrifuge-making plants.
The inspectors will be expected to verify that Iran has stopped work on the Arak heavy water reactor and is converting its stockpile of 20% enriched uranium.
Robert Kelley, a former IAEA inspector, said some elements of the plan, such as the daily visits to the enrichment plants, went beyond what was needed to ensure Iran was unable to divert uranium to a covert weapons programme.
"That looks like an unhelpful addition by the politicians," Kelley said. "Can you imagine a more boring job than having to go every day to take the memory stick out of those cameras?" The IAEA director general, Yukiya Amano, said this month that his agency could handle the extra workload. "We can mobilise the existing staff.
We have very capable inspectors with good knowledge of the nuclear fuel cycle," he told Reuters. However, it is not clear whether the implementation of the Geneva interim plan will require the IAEA to set up an permanent office in Iran, or whether Tehran would allow that to happen.
Tariq Rauf, former head of verification and security policy co-ordination at the IAEA, said the way the Geneva agreement was drafted could also lead to pressure on the agency to constantly expand its monitoring.
"There is room here for mischief if opponents can throw a spanner in the works with new accusations about different sites and demanding inspectors visit them, which Iran might resist.
It is a vulnerability of the agreement," Rauf said. only oblique reference is a line in the preamble saying a joint commission made up – of Iran and the six national signatories, known as the P5+1 – "will work with the IAEA to facilitate resolution of past and present issues of concern".
Andreas Persbo, head of Vertic, an independent group that develops means to verify international agreements, said the line was ambiguous.
"It's not clear if the information [about past weaponisation work] will be shared with the IAEA, who might then firewall that information within a small team, or whether the P5+1 and Iran would discuss the issue among themselves and keep the IAEA in the dark."
US officials have insisted that, despite the lack of references to the issue in the text of the agreement, Iran would come clean about any prior weapons work as part of a comprehensive agreement that is due to be completed in the next six months.
theguardian.com
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