A total shutdown of Russia’s gas supply to Europe will not cause blackouts this winter, the European commission said on Thursday, as Vladimir Putin warned of a potential repeat of 2008 when Russia turned off gas supplies to the Ukraine.
“If we see that our Ukrainian partners, just like in 2008, begin removing gas without permission from the export pipeline system, we, just like in 2008, will consecutively reduce the stolen volume at the cost of supplies,” Putin told reporters in Serbia.
The European commission’s gas stress tests report said that several states in eastern Europe and the Balkans would be hit by a six-month embargo of Russian gas exports.
But so long as neighbouring countries supported each other, a predicted 3% shortfall in supplies would only trigger power cuts in one EU nation: Estonia.
Europe’s emergency 30-day gas stocks are 90% full and by utilising reverse gas flows to vulnerable countries, fuel switching and the demand reductions caused by price increases in a crisis, the commission believes that any collateral damage from the ongoing crisis in Ukraine can be managed.
“We are optimistic on the basis of our very intensive work that we will not be taken hostageover the gas supply issue and I believe we will manage to agree on a package to secure supplies [from Russia] at the beginning of next year,” the commission vice-president, Gunther Oettinger, said at a press conference in Brussels.
Russia is the EU’s biggest fuel supplier, providing the bloc with 30% of its gas. In the stress tests, EU countries simulated gas supply crises in scenarios where they cooperated with their neighbours, or did not.
A gas supply deficit of between 5-9bn cubic metres emerged, even after the reshuffling of energy mixes, which would have a “substantial impact” in the EU unless cooperative measures were taken.
“Finland, Estonia, the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (FYROM), Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Serbia would miss at least 60% of the gas they need,” the report says.
“This means that even private households could be left out in the cold. If countries work together, instead of adopting purely national measures, then less consumers will be cut off from the gas. In this scenario, no household in the EU would have to be affected.”
Other countries that could be hit by significant shortfalls in gas supplies include Lithuania, Poland and Hungary, according to the commission’s latest assessment. In 2006, several European countries suffered fuel shortages when Russia turned off the taps on its gas exports to Ukraine in a pricing dispute.
The situation was repeated in 2009, leading countries such as Slovakia to declare a state of emergency. A key element of the EU’s prescription for avoiding a gas crunch this winter is that member states “allow market forces to work for as long as possible,” even though the commission estimates that procuring liquefied natural gas on the global market could increase prices by up to 100%.
Beate Raabe, the secretary-general of Eurogas, which represents the natural gas industry, welcomed the EU’s call for market forces to be allowed a free hand for as long as feasible.
“It is the companies who have the greatest know-how and experience to procure the needed volumes of gas as quickly as possible and it is important that they are left the flexibility to decide whether they procure these via a pipeline, liquefied natural gas, by drawing from storage or via flexible contracts,” she said.
Raabe expressed concern at any suggestion that the volumes available for withdrawal form storage might be controlled by authorities.
theguardian.com
“If we see that our Ukrainian partners, just like in 2008, begin removing gas without permission from the export pipeline system, we, just like in 2008, will consecutively reduce the stolen volume at the cost of supplies,” Putin told reporters in Serbia.
The European commission’s gas stress tests report said that several states in eastern Europe and the Balkans would be hit by a six-month embargo of Russian gas exports.
But so long as neighbouring countries supported each other, a predicted 3% shortfall in supplies would only trigger power cuts in one EU nation: Estonia.
Europe’s emergency 30-day gas stocks are 90% full and by utilising reverse gas flows to vulnerable countries, fuel switching and the demand reductions caused by price increases in a crisis, the commission believes that any collateral damage from the ongoing crisis in Ukraine can be managed.
“We are optimistic on the basis of our very intensive work that we will not be taken hostageover the gas supply issue and I believe we will manage to agree on a package to secure supplies [from Russia] at the beginning of next year,” the commission vice-president, Gunther Oettinger, said at a press conference in Brussels.
Russia is the EU’s biggest fuel supplier, providing the bloc with 30% of its gas. In the stress tests, EU countries simulated gas supply crises in scenarios where they cooperated with their neighbours, or did not.
A gas supply deficit of between 5-9bn cubic metres emerged, even after the reshuffling of energy mixes, which would have a “substantial impact” in the EU unless cooperative measures were taken.
“Finland, Estonia, the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (FYROM), Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Serbia would miss at least 60% of the gas they need,” the report says.
“This means that even private households could be left out in the cold. If countries work together, instead of adopting purely national measures, then less consumers will be cut off from the gas. In this scenario, no household in the EU would have to be affected.”
Other countries that could be hit by significant shortfalls in gas supplies include Lithuania, Poland and Hungary, according to the commission’s latest assessment. In 2006, several European countries suffered fuel shortages when Russia turned off the taps on its gas exports to Ukraine in a pricing dispute.
The situation was repeated in 2009, leading countries such as Slovakia to declare a state of emergency. A key element of the EU’s prescription for avoiding a gas crunch this winter is that member states “allow market forces to work for as long as possible,” even though the commission estimates that procuring liquefied natural gas on the global market could increase prices by up to 100%.
Beate Raabe, the secretary-general of Eurogas, which represents the natural gas industry, welcomed the EU’s call for market forces to be allowed a free hand for as long as feasible.
“It is the companies who have the greatest know-how and experience to procure the needed volumes of gas as quickly as possible and it is important that they are left the flexibility to decide whether they procure these via a pipeline, liquefied natural gas, by drawing from storage or via flexible contracts,” she said.
Raabe expressed concern at any suggestion that the volumes available for withdrawal form storage might be controlled by authorities.
theguardian.com
No comments:
Post a Comment